The National Audit Office has highlighted the main risks and challenges as the system changes radically. It warns that major changes to the system to improve outcomes and reduce costs will be challenging to achieve.
The NAO report points out that government does not know if the limits of the capacity of the care system to continue to absorb pressures are being approached.
The report also details increasing pressures on the system: adults with long-term and multiple health conditions and disabilities are living longer; demand for services is rising while public spending falls; and there is unmet need for care.
While the need for care continues to rise, local authorities’ spending on adult social care fell by 8 per cent in real terms between 2010-11 and 2012-13. The longer term trend of reducing the amount of care provided has continued, but NAO analysis shows that local authorities have also improved their ability to control their costs in delivering core services since 2010-11. They are making efficiency savings by changing contractual agreements, paying lower fees and negotiating bulk purchasing discounts.
Paying lower fees to independent sector providers of care can put pressure on their financial sustainability, with some providers reporting problems meeting all but users’ basic needs and investing in training for their staff. Over the last ten years, many local authorities have raised the eligibility level they set for individual packages of care. Eighty seven per cent of adults now live in local authorities that arrange care services only for those with substantial or critical needs.
The report also highlights the increasing pressure on other parts of the care and health systems. Informal carers now provide more hours of care per week and on average they are getting older. In addition, poor-quality social care can lead to unnecessary emergency hospital admissions. National and local government do not know the capacity of the care and health systems to continue to absorb these pressures and how long they can carry on doing so.
The adult care system is changing significantly and rapidly. There is an expectation that the local efficiency initiatives, service transformation and the Better Care Fund will help local government manage financial pressures. However, there is weak evidence for which ways of commissioning and providing services are the most cost-effective. The Care Bill will introduce significant changes for local authorities which will be challenging to plan for because of a lack of information, lack of evidence on what works and short timescales.
The NAO warns that, while the Department of Health and the Department for Communities and Local Government are working together to understand the cumulative implications of changes to, and reduced spending on, health and social care, welfare and related local services, other departments are not. For example, changes to benefits for adults with disabilities and their carers will put further strain on care users’ ability to pay for their own care and for informal carers to provide support.
The report concludes that adult social care, including care of an ageing population, is one of the big issues we face at present. It is important to understand this in the context of the wider healthcare system of acute and primary care. There are no easy answers, but we need to think clearly and in a joined-up way about the predictable and growing challenges in years to come.